Title: Break-through in predictive modelling opens new possibilities for aquatic ecology and management – a review 
Resource Type: document --> technical publication --> journal article 
Country: Sweden 
Year: 2004 
Availability: Hydrobiologia 518, 135-157 
Author 1/Producer: Håkanson, L 
Author / Producer Type: University research group / research institute 
Article Weblink (=direct link): http://www.geo.uu.se/miljoanalys/pdf/break_through.pdf  
Format (e.g. PDF): PDF 
Size: (e.g. 20mb) 1.5 
EUGRIS Keyword(s): Contaminated land-->Risk assessment-->Receptor: Ecological
Water resources and their management -->Water resources and their management Overview
 
Short description: Extract
Due to the complex nature of ecosystems, it has long been argued that process-based dynamic models will never predict well, and numerous studies and critical model tests have also shown this and that simple regression models often predict better for less work. A new generation of dynamic models have, however, been presented that invalidate previous statements about the predictive power of more comprehensive process-oriented dynamic models. These new dynamic models predict important ecosystem variables very well from few and readily accessible driving variables. This paper gives a review of these new models (mass-balance modelling for lakes, rivers and coastal areas and foodweb modelling based on functional groups) and highlights some important reasons for this break-through in modelling in terms of predictive power, wide applicability and practical use.
 
Submitted By: Dr Stefan Gödeke WhoDoesWhat?      Last update: 13/11/2006